Saturday 17 November 2012

6 ways President Obama and Congress can avoid the 'fiscal cliff'

Republican congressional leaders and President Obama sharply disagree over how to deal with the impending “fiscal cliff.” Negotiations among Democratic and GOP lawmakers will be tough. But averting the cliff and putting the nation on a sustainable fiscal course shouldn’t be that hard.
A reasonable framework could be agreed to now, with the details worked out in 2013. Such a scenario includes a balance of spending cuts and new revenues, most of which are consistent with the recommendations of a variety of bipartisan groups and priorities articulated in the recent election.
Here are six ways Washington can avoid the “fiscal cliff.”
James Dresch, of MND Partners Inc., works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Nov. 7. Renewed efforts are under way in Washington to resolve the impending 'fiscal cliff.' (Henny Ray Abrams/AP)

Fiscal cliff: Will the states tumble, too?

Fiscal cliff talk has been mostly focused on what would happen to the federal budget and the national economy. But what impact would the fiscal cliff have on individual states?

By Norton Francis, Guest blogger / November 17, 2012 
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., right, accompanied by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., left, and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, gestures as he speaks to reporters outside the White House in Washington, Friday, Nov. 16, 2012, following their meeting with President Barack Obama to discuss the economy and the deficit. Most of the talk surrounding the fiscal cliff concerns what its impact would be on the national budget, but the states need to be considered as well, Francis argues.
Jacquelyn Martin/AP/File
As Congress and President Obama continue to spar over how to avoid the looming fiscal cliff, most public attention has been focused on what tumbling over the edge would mean for the federal budget and the national economy. But the tremendous uncertainty over the threat of tax increases and cuts in federal spending could cause big problems for state budgets as well.
Two new studies, one by The Pew Center on the States and another by the Tax Policy Center, show what falling over the cliff would mean for states. There is a sliver of good news: If all of the last decade’s tax cuts are allowed to expire, states might see a short-term boost in revenues. They might, that is, if the economy isn’t thrown back into recession.
The Pew reportThe Impact of the Fiscal Cliff on the States, takes a comprehensive look at how the states will be affected by gridlock. State revenue is dependent on the feds, with $1 in every $3 coming from federal grants in 2010. While Medicaid, one big source of federal dollars, is exempt from the automatic across-the-board spending reduction due to take effect in January, eighteen percent of federal grants to states will be subject to those cuts in FY 2013.
On the tax side, the picture is murkier. Because many states link their tax codes to the federal law, if all of the tax cuts expire and revert to pre-2001 law, states could benefit when some elements are restored. For instance, the old limitation on itemized deductions for high-income taxpayers would increase taxable income and some states could enjoy new income tax revenue.
For example, take the estate tax. I looked at what would happen to that levy in a new TPC paper called Back from the Dead: State Estate Taxes after the Fiscal Cliff.
In 2001, in what Congress hoped would be the first steps on the road to full repeal of the estate tax, lawmakers temporarily phased out a credit for state estate and inheritance taxes, In 2005, the credit was replaced with a less-generous deduction. Some states responded to these changes by simply repealing their estate taxes. Others decoupled from the federal law, either establishing a stand-alone tax or explicitly linking their taxes to the old 2001 law. But many states did nothing, which left their estate tax tied to the repealed federal credit.
Now, if Congress goes over the cliff and the estate tax reverts to the 2001 law, 30 states will once again benefit from the resurrected credit, and their revenues will rise by about $3 billion.
That’s potentially good news, of course, for states still struggling to recover from the recession. But the promise of higher estate tax revenues could easily be swamped by those across-the-board cuts in federal spending or, worse, another recession. On the other hand, if Congress kicks the proverbial can down the road and delays efforts to address its fiscal challenges until next year, states (like businesses) must try to budget in a period of ongoing uncertainty. Both of these new reports highlight the links between states and the federal government and underline the need for clarity and permanence in federal fiscal policy.

Source

Does chocolate make you clever?


Eating more chocolate improves a nation's chances of producing Nobel Prize winners - or at least that's what a recent study appears to suggest. But how much chocolate do Nobel laureates eat, and how could any such link be explained?
The study's author, Franz Messerli of Colombia University, started wondering about the power of chocolate after reading that cocoa was good for you.
One paper suggested regular cocoa intake led to improved mental function in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment, a condition which is often a precursor to dementia, he recalls.
"There is data in rats showing that they live longer and have better cognitive function when they eat chocolate, and even in snails you can show that the snail memory is actually improved," he says.
So Messerli took the number of Nobel Prize winners in a country as an indicator of general national intelligence and compared that with the nation's chocolate consumption. The results - published in the New England Journal of Medicine - were striking.
Chocolate consumption and Nobel laureates
Graph showing countries' chocolate consumption per head and Nobel Laureates per 10 million people
"When you correlate the two - the chocolate consumption with the number of Nobel prize laureates per capita - there is an incredibly close relationship," he says.
"This correlation has a 'P value' of 0.0001. This means there is a less than one-in-10,000 probability that this correlation is simply down to chance." 
It might not surprise you that Switzerland came top of the chocolate-fuelled league of intelligence, having both the highest chocolate consumption per head and also the highest number of Nobel laureates per capita.
Sweden, however, was an anomaly. It had a very high number of Nobel laureates but its people consumed much less chocolate on average.
Messerli has a theory: "The Nobel prize obviously is donated or evaluated in Sweden [apart from the Peace Prize] so I thought that the Swedes might have a slightly patriotic bias.
Visitors taste different sorts of chocolate at the International Salon des Chocolatiers et du Chocolat, in Geneva, Switzerland  
The Swiss eat the most chocolate... and have been rewarded with the most Nobel Prizes, per head of population
"Or the other option is that the Swedes are excessively sensitive and only small amounts stimulate greatly their intelligence, so that might be the reason that they have so many Nobel Prize laureates."
We conducted our own, entirely unscientific, survey to ascertain just how much chocolate Nobel laureates ate.
Christopher Pissarides, from the London School of Economics, reckons his chocolate consumption laid the foundations for his Nobel Prize for Economics in 2010.
"Throughout my life, ever since I was a young boy, chocolate was part of my diet. I would eat it on a daily basis. It's one of the things I eat to cheer me up.
"To win a Nobel Prize you have to produce something that others haven't thought about - chocolate that makes you feel good might contribute a little bit. Of course it's not the main factor but... anything that contributes to a better life and a better outlook in your life then contributes to the quality of your work."
However, Rolf Zinkernagel - the largely Swiss-educated 1996 Nobel Prize winner for medicine - bucks his national trend.
Meatballs with Swedish flag cocktail sticks 
Swedes eat only half as much chocolate as Germans but the country has twice as many Nobel laureates per head... perhaps it's down to the meatballs?
"I am an outlier, because I don't eat more than - and never have eaten more than - half a kilogram of chocolate per year," he says.
Robert Grubbs, an American who shared the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 2005, says he eats chocolate whenever possible.
"I had a friend who introduced me to chocolate and beer when we were younger. I have transferred that now to chocolate and red wine.
"I like to hike and I eat chocolate then, I eat chocolate whenever I can."
But this is a controversial subject.
Grubbs' countryman, Eric Cornell, who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2001, told Reuters: "I attribute essentially all my success to the very large amount of chocolate that I consume. Personally I feel that milk chocolate makes you stupid… dark chocolate is the way to go. It's one thing if you want a medicine or chemistry Nobel Prize but if you want a physics Nobel Prize it pretty much has got to be dark chocolate."
But when More or Less contacted him to elaborate on this comment, he changed his tune.
"I deeply regret the rash remarks I made to the media. We scientists should strive to maintain objective neutrality and refrain from declaring our affiliation either with milk chocolate or with dark chocolate," he said.
"Now I ask that the media kindly respect my family's privacy in this difficult time."
Visitors enjoy the chocolate-spa pool at the Hakone Kowakien Yunessun hot springs resort, Japan  
But while the Japanese clearly enjoy a cocoa-based snack, their chocolate consumption is relatively low - as is their Nobel Prize haul
It might surprise you that we are trying to make a serious point. This is a classic case where correlation, however strong, does not mean causation.
Messerli gave us another example. In post-war Germany, the human birth rate fell along with the stork population. Were fewer storks bringing fewer babies?
The answer was that more homes were being built, destroying the storks' habitat. And the homes were small - not the sort of places you could raise a large family in.
"This is a very, very common way of thinking," he says.
"When you see a correlation, you do think there is causation in one way or another. And in general it's absolutely true. But here we have a classic example where we cannot find a good reason why these two correlate so closely."

Friday 16 November 2012

Deadly oil rig explosion puts spotlight back on embattled Gulf drillers

An oil rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico Friday, reportedly killing at least two. The accident hits an industry trying to improve on safety in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

By Staff writer / November 16, 2012 

An offshore oil platform burns in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana Friday.
KLFY TV10/REUTERS 
Atlanta
A day after BP agreed to pay a record $4.5 billion criminal fine for its role in the deadly Deepwater Horizon environmental disaster in 2010, another Gulf of Mexico oil rig exploded, killing at least two workers and injuring as many as 11 on Friday.
While early reports are downplaying the potential for another major environmental disaster, the deadly accident came as the Gulf oil industry tries to shore up a safety record that came under deep scrutiny in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon explosion, which killed 11 workers and resulted in some five million barrels of oil escaping into the Gulf from a broken wellhead.
The explosion and ensuing fire on Friday happened on a permanent oil pumping rig owned by independent driller Black Elk Energy around 10 a.m. Eastern time as workers were using cutting torches to split some pipe on the oil rig.
Early indications showed some oil had escaped from the platform, but Coast Guard officials said it was not “a major oil spill response” and that no oil was leaking from the rig. “It’s not going to be an uncontrolled discharge from everything we’re getting right now,” said Coast Guard Capt. Ed Cubanski.
The rig is located about 36 miles south of Port Fourchon, La. By afternoon, the main fire on the rig had been extinguished and the Coast Guard had begun its oil-spill response as reports indicated that a half-mile long, 200-yard wide sheen had developed on the water near the stricken platform.
In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon capsized and sank after firefighting boats failed to get control of the blaze. On Thursday, BP, the company that had leased the rig, pleaded guilty to charges related to the workers’ deaths and accepted a deal that would put two monitors in charge of assessing the company’s safety processes for the next five years.
Unlike the Deepwater Horizon, which was a deep water exploratory rig, the Black Elk rig is a shallow water platform pumping from a permanent wellhead. The rig was not producing oil on Friday, but workers were performing maintenance. After the explosion, two people were confirmed dead, two were still missing, and 11 were injured, four seriously.
“West Delta Block 32 – our thoughts and prayers are with those who are impacted,” the Black Elk Energy website said in large letters Friday afternoon. “We have Black Elk personnel on the scene and en route.”
While the Deepwater Horizon leak brought unprecedented scrutiny to the oil industry’s safety procedures in the Gulf, Friday’s accident is part of a legacy of danger endured by the nation’s oil workers.
Between 2001 and 2010, the US government documented 69 offshore deaths, 1,349 injuries and 858 fires and explosions on offshore rigs situated in the Gulf of Mexico.

Source

EU dips into recession. Is the US next?

The EU is in a recession, according to new data from EuroStat. Will the US follow suit or buck the trend?

By Guest blogger / November 16, 2012  

This graph compares EU and US quarterly GDP change since 1996. The graph illustrates the similar trends between the two economic areas.
SoldAtTheTop

Yesterday, EuroStat, the European Union’s statistics office, released their Q3 2012 read on the 17-nation combine GDP showing a quarter-to-quarter decline of 0.1%, tipping the group squarely (though possibly temporarily due to future revisions) into recession, as economic conditions worsened and continued from the prior quarter’s -0.2% reading.
While recession for Europe is no surprise, given all the attention that has been directed to the crisis economies of Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal and the broader weakness elsewhere in the European Union, it should also be clear that the U.S. faces nearly identical prospects as the burdens of government overreach take their toll on macroeconomic conditions.
Further, while the U.S. generally prides itself on having more robust economic conditions than Europe, comparing the quarterly growth rates, one can easily see that for over a decade now, our economic conditions have, more or less, trended together.
So this begs the question, how long can the U.S. expect to buck the trend?
Unless you expect notable improvement in future quarters, it would appear that the European Union’s poor conditions are just another harbinger of larger global underperformance that could crush the U.S.’s tepid recovery.

Source

Thursday 15 November 2012

Banks seen shrinking for good as lay-offs near 160,000

The incredible shrinking bank
LONDON | Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:31am EST

(Reuters) - Major banks have announced some 160,000 job cuts since early last year and with more lay-offs to come as the industry restructures, many will leave the shrinking sector for good as redundancies outpace new hires by roughly two-to-one.
A Reuters analysis of job cuts announced by 29 major banks showed the lay-offs were much bigger in Europe than in Asia or the United States. That is a particular blow to Britain where the finance industry makes up roughly 10 percent of the economy.
The tally of nearly 160,000 job cut plans, meanwhile, is likely to be a conservative estimate as smaller banks and brokers are also cutting staff or shutting up shop, and bigger banks have not always disclosed target numbers of lay-offs.
The tally also does not include reports of 6,000 job cuts to come at Commerzbank, for example, which the German group would not confirm last week.
Well-paid investment bankers are bearing the brunt of cost cuts as deals dry up and trading income falls. That is particularly the case in some activities such as stock trading, where low volumes and thin margins are squeezing banks.
"When I let go tons of people in cash equities this year, I knew most would be finished in this business. It is pretty dead. Some will just have to find something completely different to do," said one top executive at an international bank in London, on condition of anonymity.
The job cuts eat into tax revenues usually reaped from the sector at a time when the global economic recovery is slowing.
This year's tax income from the industry in Britain could drop to around 40 billion pounds ($63 billion) this year, compared to 70 billion in 2007/08, when the financial crisis hit, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think-tank said this week.
The job cuts announced since the beginning of 2011 come on top of job cuts already carried since 2009.
Of the 29 banks, from Europe's biggest bank HSBC to U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, just over 83,700 net jobs have been lost since 2009, with 167,200 jobs axed and 83,500 created.
Squeezed by regulations forcing banks to store up more capital in their trading businesses, firms are likely to shrink their investment banking units even further, as they overhaul their models to survive.
"It is structural as well as in response to cycles in the market. The market is still over-broked," said Zaheer Ebrahim at recruiters Kennedy Group.
Swiss bank UBS last month outlined a further 10,000 lay-offs after announcing a plan for 3,500 job cuts last year. It said in October it had decided to exit most of its rates and debt trading units.
Workers in retail banking operation will not be immune to job cuts either, particularly in slowing European economies. In France for instance, bank executives predict retail revenues will falter.
"There are still 300,000 too many full-time employees in the top financial services players in Europe," said Caio Gilberti from the financial services practice of consultancy AlixPartners. Gilberti said cutting those jobs could lop just over 20 billion euros off banks' collective cost base.
LEAVING FOR GOOD
As banks shrink, fewer of those leaving are able to find equivalent jobs at rivals, head-hunters and bankers said, and only a small proportion of those are qualified to move into other jobs at hedge funds, for instance, which look for specialized, skilled traders.
Mergers and acquisition dealmakers are now also coming under pressure, with fees in that area down 21 percent worldwide to $13.9 billion in the first nine months, Thomson Reuters data showed.
More senior investment bankers are among those in the line of fire. Those ranking as managing directors (MDs), who can command base salaries of around 350,000 pounds ($556,000), are becoming costly to keep - and difficult to take on.
"At MD level, it is tougher to accept smaller jobs, and they do not have the same drive and ambition as the young bankers who have just graduated," Ebrahim from the Kennedy Group said.
Many of those that have enjoyed lucrative careers in the fatter years are instead leaving big banks for good, setting up their own small consultancies or different types of businesses.
(Editing by Jon Hemming)

Source 

Paul Krugman: Life, Death and Deficits


Raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare is *not* the answer:
Life, Death and Deficits, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: America’s political landscape is infested with many zombie ideas... And right now the most dangerous zombie is probably the claim that rising life expectancy justifies a rise in both the Social Security retirement age and the age of eligibility for Medicare... — and we shouldn’t let it eat our brains. ...
Now, life expectancy at age 65 has risen... But the rise has been very uneven..., any further rise in the retirement age would be a harsh blow to Americans in the bottom half of the income distribution, who aren’t living much longer, and who, in many cases, have jobs requiring physical effort that’s difficult even for healthy seniors. And these are precisely the people who depend most on Social Security. ...
While the United States does have a long-run budget problem, Social Security is not a major factor... Medicare, on the other hand, is a big budget problem. But raising the eligibility age, which means forcing seniors to seek private insurance, is no way to deal with that problem. ...
What would happen if we raised the Medicare eligibility age? The federal government would save only a small amount of money, because younger seniors are relatively healthy... Meanwhile, however, those seniors would face sharply higher out-of-pocket costs. How could this trade-off be considered good policy?
The bottom line is that raising the age of eligibility for either Social Security benefits or Medicare would be destructive, making Americans’ lives worse without contributing in any significant way to deficit reduction. Democrats ... who even consider either alternative need to ask themselves what on earth they think they’re doing.
But what, ask the deficit scolds, do people like me propose doing about rising spending? The answer is to do what every other advanced country does, and make a serious effort to rein in health care costs. Give Medicare the ability to bargain over drug prices. Let the Independent Payment Advisory Board, created as part of Obamacare to help Medicare control costs, do its job instead of crying “death panels.” (And isn’t it odd that the same people who demagogue attempts to help Medicare save money are eager to throw millions of people out of the program altogether?) ...
What we know for sure is that there is no good case for denying older Americans access to the programs they count on. This should be a red line in any budget negotiations, and we can only hope that Mr. Obama doesn’t betray his supporters by crossing it.

Solving the Too Big to Fail Problem

November 15, 2012
William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer
Remarks at the Clearing House's Second Annual Business Meeting and Conference, New York City
As prepared for delivery.

It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak here today. I am glad to see the progress our city and region have made recovering from Sandy, but obviously significant challenges remain.
I am going to focus my remarks today on what is popularly known as the “too big to fail” (TBTF) problem. In particular, should society tolerate a financial system in which certain financial institutions are deemed to be too big to fail? And, if not, then what should we do about it?
The answer to the first question is clearly “no.” We cannot tolerate a financial system in which some firms are too big to fail—at least not ones that operate in any form other than that of a very tightly regulated utility.
The second question is the more interesting one. Is the current approach of the official sector to ending TBTF the right one? I’d characterize this approach as reducing the incentives for firms to operate with a large systemic footprint, reducing the likelihood of them failing, and lowering the cost to society when they do fail. Or would it be better to take the more direct, but less nuanced approach advocated by some and simply break up the most systemically important firms into smaller or simpler pieces in the hope that what emerges is no longer systemic and too big to fail?1
As I will explain tonight, I believe we should continue to press forward on the first path. But, if we fail to reach our destination by this route, then a blunter approach may yet prove necessary. As always, my views may not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve System.
What Is the Too-Big-to-Fail Problem?The root cause of “too big to fail’ is the fact that in our financial system as it exists today, the failure of large complex financial firms generate large, undesirable externalities. These include disruption of the stability of the financial system and its ability to provide credit and other essential financial services to households and businesses. When this happens, not only is the financial sector disrupted, but its troubles cascade over into the real economy.
There are negative externalities associated with the failure of any financial firm, but these are disproportionately high in the case of large, complex and interconnected firms. Although the moniker is “too big to fail,” the magnitude of these externalities does not depend simply on size. The size of the externalities also depends on the particular mix of business activities and the degree of interconnectedness with the rest of the financial industry. One important element is the importance of the services the firm provides to the broader financial system and the economy and the ease with which customers can move their business to other providers. Another is the extent to which the firm’s structure and activities create the potential for contagion—that is, direct losses for counterparties, fire sales of assets held by other leveraged financial institutions, or loss of confidence that might precipitate runs on other firms with similar business models.
The presence of large negative externalities creates a dilemma for policymakers when such firms are in danger of failing, particularly if the wider financial system is also under stress at the same moment. At that point in time, the expected costs to society of failure are very large compared to the short-run costs from providing the extraordinary liquidity support, capital or other emergency assistance necessary to prevent catastrophic failure.
The market's belief that a TBTF firm is more likely to be rescued in the event of distress than other firms weakens the degree of market discipline exerted by capital providers and counterparties. This reduces the firm's cost of funds and incents the firm to take more risk than would be the case if there were no prospect of rescue and funding costs were higher.
The fact that firms deemed by the market to be TBTF enjoy an artificial subsidy in the form of lower funding costs distorts competition to the detriment of smaller, less complex firms. This advantage, in turn, creates an unfortunate incentive for firms to get even larger and more complex. The funding benefit of being seen to be TBTF causes the financial system to become artificially skewed toward larger and more complex firms—in ways that are unrelated to true economies of scale and scope.
Now to be clear, I don't believe that firms necessarily deliberately set out to become TBTF. Nor do I think that TBTF was the main cause of the breakdown in market discipline that preceded the financial crisis. Many factors were at work, including the failure to grasp the riskiness of new types of credit products and business models, and principal-agent problems such as the “trader’s put.” But I do think TBTF contributed to the underpricing of risk in the system and did create a bad set of incentives, and if not addressed comprehensively, would likely be an even larger problem in the future.
So How Did the Problem Become So Serious? The TBTF problem is not new. For example, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) and other federal regulatory agencies intervened to prevent the abrupt failure of Continental Illinois, then the seventh largest bank in the United States, in the 1980s. Had Continental Illinois been allowed to fail without any intervention, the comptroller of the currency later testified, “we could very well have seen a national, if not an international, financial crisis the dimensions of which were difficult to imagine.”2
The comptroller went on to declare that the largest 11 national, commercial banks were too big to fail.
But the problem has become more significant since that time for several reasons. First, the biggest financial institutions have become much larger, both in absolute terms and relative to the overall size of the banking system. This reflects many factors including the end of prohibitions on interstate banking, the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act restrictions separating investment from commercial banking, the rapid growth of the capital markets, and the globalization of the economy—all of which created intense competitive pressures to expand in order to gain economies of scale and scope.
In commercial banking, consolidation occurred at a rapid pace. For example, Bank of America was the outgrowth of over 160 different mergers, which pushed up the size of the original acquirer from $23 billion of assets in 1980 to $2.2 trillion today. In the securities industry, some partnerships became public companies, in part, so that they could more easily obtain the capital needed to expand rapidly. For example, when Goldman Sachs went public in 1999, it had about 15,000 employees and $250 billion of assets. Just eight years later, the firm had expanded to 35,000 employees and $1.1 trillion of assets.
In the mid-1990s, the top five banks in the United States had total assets of $1 trillion or about 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The top securities firms had total assets of $718 billion, or about 9 percent of GDP. By the end of 2007, the top five banks had assets of $6.8 trillion or 49 percent of GDP. Similarly, the top securities firms accounted for $3.8 trillion, or about 27 percent of GDP. In addition, the firms’ off-balance-sheet exposures rose sharply.
Second, the complexity and interconnectedness of the largest financial firms increased markedly. Factors behind this include the adoption of a universal banking model by some commercial bank holding companies and the rapid growth of trading businesses, especially the over the counter (OTC) derivatives market. In the early 1980s, there were no true U.S. “universal banks” that combined traditional commercial banking with capital markets and underwriting activities. By 2007, there were several operating in the United States, including Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, UBS, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Also, the OTC derivatives business in foreign exchange, interest rate swaps and credit default swaps had exploded from its start in the early 1980s. The total notional value of the OTC derivatives outstanding for the five largest banks and securities firms currently totals about $200 trillion.
During this period, there was inadequate attention to the risks that were building up in the system. The regulatory and supervisory framework did not keep up with the changes in size, complexity, interconnectedness and globalization that created growing systemic risk externalities and widened the wedge between private and social costs in the event of failure.
Let me mention just a few of the issues:
  • Capital regulation was lax both in terms of the amount of capital required and the quality of that capital. As a result, many banks did not have the capacity to absorb large shocks and retain access to wholesale funding.
  • The oversight of the largest securities firms was particularly deficient in terms of ensuring that these firms had sufficient private resources to deal with shocks. The industry was also particularly exposed because in the United States, there was (and remains) no lender of last resort backstop for the securities industry except in extremis.3
  • Although global integration brought with it a number of benefits, regulatory coordination did not keep pace with the globalization of financial firms and markets. This allowed the potential magnitude of the negative externalities associated with the failure of globally active firms to expand considerably.
  • Policymakers allowed market structures, particularly in wholesale funding markets, to evolve in directions that were efficient from a private perspective in normal times, but amplified run dynamics and therefore externalities in times of stress. Examples include the growth in triparty repo activities and the reliance of many large financial institutions on funding from money market mutual funds, as well as many other elements of the shadow banking system.
The TBTF problem was further aggravated by the financial crisis and the policy response. Faced with systemwide stress, the Federal Reserve, with the support of the U.S. Treasury, intervened to prevent the disorderly failure of Bear Stearns, a firm that would not have been high on the list of TBTF firms a few years earlier.
Meanwhile, the failure of Lehman Brothers demonstrated that the cost to society of the uncontrolled failure of a TBTF firm in a period of generalized stress was considerably greater than anticipated. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman, contagion spread by many channels, including prime brokerage, OTC derivatives positions, money market mutual funds, tri-party repo and wholesale funding markets. The loss in confidence disrupted the flow of credit throughout the global financial system, generating a global economic downturn and the worst contraction in the United States since the Great Depression.
Recognition of the costs generated by the Lehman failure led to extraordinary interventions to prevent further catastrophic failures. These included the rescue of AIG, the FDIC’s TLGP program, the ring-fence of Citigroup’s poorer quality assets, and the TARP injection of capital into the largest U.S. financial institutions. Because this solidified in investors’ minds that TBTF firms—after the Lehman debacle—would be protected, this worsened the TBTF problem.
The problem was exacerbated during the crisis by the acquisition of weakened firms by stronger firms, a development that was actively promoted by policymakers in a bid to avoid or temper the consequences of their failure. J.P. Morgan absorbed Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual and its assets grew from $1.5 trillion in 2007 to $2.3 trillion today; Wells Fargo purchased Wachovia and its assets increased from $575 billion in 2007 to $1.3 trillion today; and Bank of America purchased Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, increasing its assets from $1.7 trillion in 2007 to $2.2 trillion today. This, of course, made the surviving firms even bigger and more complex.
When the smoke had cleared, the situation was clearly untenable. The experience of the crisis increased the advantage from being perceived as TBTF, and, thus, strengthened the incentives to become bigger, more complex, and interconnected.
The Dodd Frank Act (DFA) set out to end TBTF. One means was by eliminating the Federal Reserve’s discretion to provide emergency financial support through a program open only to a single financial institution, and, in general, raising the bar for broader-based emergency interventions under section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act.
But, as the DFA recognized, simply tying the Fed’s hands on intervention is insufficient. It does not reduce the cost to society from the failure of a large and complex firm. In order for the non-intervention strategy to be both fully credible and consistent with the public interest, we need to tackle the underlying externalities and incentive problems that give rise to TBTF in the first place.
Tackling Too Big to Fail As I see it, solving the TBTF problem requires working on a number of different margins. These include measures that are firm-specific and those that address the structure of the financial system more broadly.
One set of measures works to reduce the incentives for excessive risk-taking and to lower the probability that large financial firms fail or come close to failure. Another set lessens the disruption to the financial system and hence the cost their failure imposes on the broader economy and society as a whole. Along with measures that penalize characteristics associated with the negative externalities from failure, these changes work against the incentive to be too big to fail.
Policy measures that alter incentives and reduce the probability of distress
A number of steps have already been taken that reduce the probability of failure. For example, there has already been considerable progress in forcing firms to bolster their capital and liquidity resources. On the capital side, consistent with the Dodd-Frank Act, Basel III significantly raises the quantity and quality of capital required of internationally active bank holding companies. This ensures that the firm’s shareholders will bear all the firm’s losses across a much wider range of scenarios than before. This should strengthen market discipline. Meanwhile, to the extent that some of the specific activities that generate significant externalities are now subject to higher capital charges, this should cause banks to alter their business activities in ways that reduce both the likelihood and social cost of their failure.
Moreover, the new Basel regime explicitly adjusts capital requirements upward based on size, complexity, interconnectedness, global exposure and substitutability—attributes that are proxies for the negative externalities generated by failure. If a bank is deemed a global systemic financial institution or G-SIFI, then it will have to hold a greater amount of capital relative to its risk-weighted assets compared to a less systemic institution.4
The notion behind the SIFI surcharge is a simple one. The cost to society from the failure of a large, complex firm is proportionally considerably higher than the cost to society of the failure of a non-systemic firm. As a result the capital buffer for the more systemic firm should be higher so that its expected probability of failure will be lower than for the less systemic firm.
The SIFI surcharge acts as a penalty for size and complexity, leaning against the funding cost advantage a firm may have because it is perceived to be TBTF. This helps level the playing field for smaller firms and reduces the incentive to seek to become TBTF in the first place.
Domestically, we have adopted a more forward-looking approach to capital through the use of stress tests, in particular the annual Comprehensive Capital Assessment Review (CCAR) program. By promoting transparency, CCAR also strengthens market discipline.
On the liquidity front, the largest, most systemically important bank holding companies will be required to hold a 30-day liquidity buffer—the so-called liquidity coverage ratio or LCR. The purpose of the LCR is to ensure that such a bank will have sufficient liquid resources so if it were to encounter business difficulties and temporarily lose access to market funding, it would still have some time to address its underlying problems. With a liquidity buffer, banks will not immediately be forced to sell illiquid assets during times of stress. This should enhance their stability, and provide some protection against the fire sale externalities we saw during the crisis: forced asset sales, falling asset prices, leading to rising capital losses at other firms that led, in turn, to further funding difficulties, asset sales and so on.
On the supervisory side, firms are now increasingly being evaluated on a cross-industry basis in order to identify best practices and to identify laggards that need to upgrade areas such as MIS, governance, model validation, and risk management practices.
Activity restrictions are another potential means to reduce the risk of failure. The biggest initiative in this area is the Volcker Rule. By limiting proprietary trading activities, the Volcker Rules seeks to reduce trading risk and the likelihood of failure.
In addition, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is in the process of identifying those non-bank financial firms that are systemically important. These firms will be subject to tougher prudential standards and supervisory oversight by the Federal Reserve.
Some argue that this designation process merely creates more TBTF firms. I see it differently. The system risk externalities do not depend on whether we label them systemic or not. If these risks are present, then we should face up to the issue with tougher standards and enhanced supervisory oversight rather than leave the issue unaddressed. This has to be a superior approach relative to pretending these firms could not be TBTF and the problem doesn’t exist.
Policy measures to reduce the adverse systemic consequences from failure
Because no plausible level of capital and liquidity standards will be sufficient to reduce the probability of failure to zero, it also makes sense to work on the other major margin—to reduce the cost of the failure of a large, complex financial firm. We can do this by making changes so that such failures are less likely to impair the functioning of the broader financial system. In this area, although many initiatives are in train, I would conclude that we are still very far from where we need to be.
One simple but meaningful step that already has been enacted is to put a brake on the ability of the largest and most complex firms to become even larger and more complex. To this end, the Dodd-Frank Act adds “the risk to stability of the U.S. banking or financial system” as an additional factor to be considered in evaluating a proposed merger or acquisition under the Bank Merger Act and the Bank Holding Company Act. As Governor Daniel Tarullo discussed in a recent speech, there is not a hard and fast rule to be applied here. But his view, which I share, is that there would be a “a strong, though not irrebuttable, presumption of denial [of a merger or acquisition] by any firm that falls in the higher end of the list of global systemically important banks…”5,6
Another step for dealing with the firms that might be viewed by some as already TBTF is to understand better the interconnections and pathways through which the distress or failure of one firm impairs the larger system and causes harm to society. We have made progress through the supervisory process in mapping out critical activities performed by firms. Also, we have identified a number of areas, such as collateral management, where better practices could both improve the safety and soundness of the individual firm and reduce the negative externalities generated by a firm’s failure.
Work is also underway to evaluate what changes would be required to make the future bankruptcy of large complex firms less disruptive, while also developing an alternative means for the orderly resolution of such firms outside the normal bankruptcy process.
The costs to society of large complex financial firms failing can be reduced at least to some degree by having firms, working in conjunction with their regulators, “pre-plan” their own failure through the so-called “living will” process. The largest and most systemically important banks submitted their “living wills” to the Federal Reserve and the FDIC this summer. We have reviewed the first iterations of their plans and are currently drafting feedback for the firms to incorporate in their next submissions. Through such “living wills,” regulators are gaining a better understanding of the impediments to an orderly bankruptcy. This is the necessary first phase in the process of determining how to ameliorate these impediments over time and then doing so.
In my view, this initial exercise has confirmed that we are a long way from the desired situation in which large complex firms could be allowed to go bankrupt without major disruptions to the financial system and large costs to society. Significant changes in structure and organization will ultimately be required for this to be achieved. However, the “living will” exercise is an iterative process, and we have only taken the first step in a long journey.
The second way to potentially minimize the negative externalities from a firm’s failure would be to avoid a bankruptcy proceeding altogether and instead resolve the firm under the Dodd-Frank Act’s Title II orderly liquidation 7 authority.8
The “single point of entry” model has much promise, but much remains to be done before it could be implemented with confidence for a globally active firm. Title II authority is U.S. law. Subsidiaries and affiliates chartered in other countries could be wound down under the bankruptcy laws of those countries, if authorities there did not have full confidence that local interests would be protected. Certain Title II measures including the one-day stay provision with respect to OTC derivatives and other qualified financial contracts may not apply through the force of law outside the United States, making orderly resolution difficult.
The other essential dimension of solving TBTF is to make the financial system more robust—addressing structural vulnerabilities that tend to amplify shocks rather than absorb them. If the financial system can be made more resilient, it will be better positioned to withstand the failure of a large and complex firm and continue to provide essential financial services to the real economy.
I would highlight three areas of work that are critical to solving the TBTF problem. First, regulators and supervisors are pushing for changes in wholesale funding markets, a source of particular vulnerability during the crisis. This includes reforms to tri-party repo, which are underway, and necessary reforms to the money market mutual fund industry, which are being evaluated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
Second, the financial market infrastructures are being strengthened to make them more robust to the failure of individual firms. The Committee on Payments and Settlement Systems and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have published a set of standards for financial market infrastructures called “Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures” that will serve as minimum standards globally.
Finally, the OTC derivatives market is being reformed with the aim of reducing bilateral exposures between firms and, thus, the systemic impact from any one firm failing. All standardized OTC derivatives in the interest rate, credit default, and equities markets will soon have to be centrally cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). The clearing of standardized derivatives trades through CCPs should reduce risk in the overall financial system by facilitating the netting down of OTC derivative exposures. Such trades will also have to be reported to trade repositories and information about the trades will be made available on a post-trade basis. This should make the OTC derivatives market more transparent and, thus, reduce the risk of contagion.
The Way Forward We have made some progress on the TBTF problem, particularly in reducing the likelihood that a large complex firm will reach the point of distress at which society faces serious costs. But we have a considerable ways to go to finish the job and reduce to tolerable levels the social costs associated with such failures.
Further international coordination is almost certainly going to be necessary to ensure that bankruptcy regimes interact in ways that minimize negative externalities. At home we also need to ensure that different authorities and resolution regimes operate in a mutually consistent manner. In particular, we may need to revisit the SIPC regime that governs securities firms in bankruptcy. At present, the bankruptcy of a securities firm is very disruptive because the claims of all counterparties are typically frozen for a considerable period and the value of these claims is not easy to ascertain or monetize quickly.
As I have argued above, we shouldn’t focus on solving TBTF exclusively at the level of the individual firm. We need significant changes in market structures and practices as well in order to have a financial system in which the key players can fail without big social costs.
We also must continue to ask ourselves the question of whether the steps in train go far enough. For example, one could make a good case that the capital surcharge for systemically important firms should be higher than that contemplated by the Basel Committee. Of course, such a judgment depends on how much other policies succeed in reducing the negative externalities their failure would generate.
Critics of our approach believe it would be better to just break up firms deemed TBTF now—perhaps through legislation requiring the separation of retail banking and capital markets activities or by imposing size restrictions that require firms to shrink dramatically from their current scale. My own view is that while this could yet prove necessary, it is premature to give up on the current approach: changing the incentives facing large and complex firms, forcing them to become more resilient, and making the financial system more robust to their failure.
In my opinion, there are shortcomings to reimposing Glass-Steagall-type activity restrictions or strict size limits. With respect to Glass-Steagall, it is not obvious to me that the pairing of securities and banking businesses was an important causal element behind the crisis. In fact, independent investment banks were much more vulnerable during 2008 than the universal banking firms which conducted both banking and securities activities. More important is to address the well-known sources of instability in wholesale funding markets and give careful consideration to whether there should be a more robust lender of last resort regime for securities activities.
With respect to size limitations, it is important to recognize that a new and much reduced size threshold could sacrifice socially useful economies of scale and scope benefits. And it could do this without actually solving the problem of system risk externalities that aren’t related to balance sheet size.
Evaluating the socially optimal size, scope and organizational structure of financial firms is a complicated business, and so is establishing a viable transition path to a system of much smaller firms. It would be helpful in this regard if advocates of break-up solutions would put a bit more flesh on the bones and develop detailed proposals that address essential questions of how such downsizing or functional separation would be accomplished, and what benefits and costs could be expected.
Such an analysis should answer several questions: How would you force divestiture (in good times and bad)? Should firms be split up by activity or reduced pro-rata in size? How much would they have to be shrunk in order for the externalities of failure to no longer create TBTF problems? How would global trading and investment banking services and network-type activities be supported? Should some activities be retained in natural monopoly form, but subject to utility type regulation? How costly would it be to replicate support services or to manage liquidity and capital locally? Are there ways of designing size limits that cannot be arbitraged by banks via off-balance-sheet structures and other forms of financial innovation? So far, advocacy for the break-up path has been strong, but without the detail to assess whether this is indeed superior to the course we are currently following. But, I’m open-minded.
It is important to recognize that any credible approach to addressing the TBTF problem, including the one we are pursuing today, necessarily implies changes to the structure and business mix of financial firms and financial markets. Moreover, it is important to stress that not all of these adjustments will be in the private interests of these firms, and some will result in changes to the price and volume of certain financial services. These are intended consequences, not unintended consequences.
Too big to fail is an unacceptable regime. The good news is there are many efforts underway to address this problem. The bad news is that some of these efforts are just in their nascent stages. It is important that as the crisis recedes in memory, that these efforts not flag—this is a project that needs to be seen to a successful conclusion and then sustained on a permanent basis.
Thank you for your attention, I would be happy to take a few questions.


1 This would presumably require legislation.
2 Conover, C.T. 1984. “Testimony: Inquiry Into the Continental Illinois Corp. and Continental Illinois National Bank.” Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions Supervision, Regulation, and Insurance of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, 98th Cong., 2nd Session, September 18, 19 and October 4: 172-391. P. 288

3 Under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, the Federal Reserve is authorized to lend to individuals, corporations and partnerships. But this may occur only if a super majority of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has determined that circumstances are “unusual and exigent.” Subsequently, the Dodd-Frank Act further constrained this authority by prohibiting its use to rescue an individual company from bankruptcy.

4 Earlier this month, the Financial Stability Board published a list of 28 global systemically important banks or G-SIBs that will be subject to capital surcharges. The firms were arrayed in four buckets, with an increasing capital surcharge as a percent of risk-weighted assets imposed as one ascended upward to the higher buckets.

5 See Governor Daniel K. Tarullo, “Financial Stability Regulation,” October 10, 2012. Mr Tarullo added that “I would not apply the presumption in the case of certain de minimis acquisitions or in cases where asset dispositions were judged to offset any increase in systemic risk from the proposed new acquisiton."

6 Earlier this year, the Board of Governors issued an order approving Capital One Financial Corporation's acquisition of a federal savings bank, ING Bank. In that order, the Board set forth two principles that are relevant to this particular issue. First, the Board stated that it would generally find a significant adverse effect if the failure of the firm resulting from a merger or acquisition "would likely impair financial intermediation or financial market functioning so as to inflict material damage on the broader economy." Second, the Board observed that there are some small acquisitions or mergers that would not raise a financial stability concern, such as “a proposal that involves an acquisition of less than $2 billion in assets, [or] results in a firm with less than $25 billion in total assets . . . . “

7 The FDIC's "single point of entry" framework for implementing this authority envisages establishing a bridge company into which all the operating subsidiaries of the parent company would be transferred. The bridge company would be recapitalized by converting all or some of the parent company’s subordinated and senior unsecured debt into fresh equity in the bridge company. The parent company would be allowed to fail. The transfer of the operating subsidiaries to the bridge company would allow critical operations to continue and provide time for the FDIC to move the systemically important operations back into private hands.

8 The DFA orderly liquidation authority is viewed as to be used only as a last resort under a very well-defined set of circumstances. To resolve a firm under the FDIC’s orderly liquidation authority, a number of determinations must be satisfied. First, the troubled firm must be designated a covered financial company (CFC) and that it is in default or danger of default and a resolution under bankruptcy would result in adverse consequences. The determination to use OLA authority requires the assent of the Treasury Secretary after consultation with the President.

Source

2013 World Development Report on Jobs

The World Development Report 2013: Jobs stresses the role of strong private sector led growth in creating jobs and outlines how jobs that do the most for development can spur a virtuous cycle. The report finds that poverty falls as people work their way out of hardship and as jobs empower women to invest more in their children. Efficiency increases as workers get better at what they do, as more productive jobs appear, and as less productive ones disappear. Societies flourish as jobs foster diversity and provide alternatives to conflict.
 

US Postal Service in $16bn loss

The US Postal Service has seen declining mail volume but increases in shipping services

The US Postal Service has reported an annual loss of a $15.9bn (£10bn), ending a year in which it defaulted on payments twice to avert bankruptcy.
Its financial losses were more than triple the previous year's.
Most of the mail agency's financial woes come from mounting mandatory costs for future retiree health benefits.
Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said the Postal Service's hands are tied by congressional inaction on a bill that would allow it to reduce the payments.
"It's critical that Congress do its part and pass comprehensive legislation before they adjourn this year to move the Postal Service further down the path toward financial health," Mr Donahoe said, calling the situation "our own postal fiscal cliff".
One version of the bill would cut down on the required $5bn annual health-benefit payment and allow it to eliminate Saturday mail delivery.
Earlier in 2012, the Postal Service defaulted for the first time in its history on two of the health payments.
The Senate passed a postal bill in April that would have reduced the mandatory advances and refunded overpayments to a federal pension fund.
But legislation proposing an end to Saturday delivery has stalled in the House of Representatives.
The mail agency has seen other structural problems in declining mail volume, but has seen growth in it shipping services, up 9% in 2012.
Fredric Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, blamed Congress for mandating the annual health pre-payments in 2006, but suggested lawmakers should wait to act on legislation until next year.
His union is opposed to the current version of the House bill, which gives the Postal Service wide leeway to close post office branches and make employee cuts to balance its budget.

Only 43% of Countries Disclose Public Officials’ Financial Assets, Says World Bank

Financial disclosure is a powerful anti-corruption tool

WASHINGTON, November 8, 2012– Financial disclosure laws requiring public officials to file a statement of their assets, liabilities and interests can make corruption easier to detect. However, a new World Bank database finds that although 78 percent of countries covered by the database have financial disclosure systems, only 36 percent systematically check public servants’ disclosures for irregularities and inconsistencies.
To support countries in their fight against corruption, the World Bank is launching the Financial Disclosure Law Library to help policymakers and practitioners establish strong financial disclosure systems. The Library compiles over 1,000 laws and regulations on financial disclosure and restrictions on public officials’ activities from 176 countries.
Financial disclosure by public officials provides law enforcement with information and evidence for the prevention, investigation and prosecution of corruption, illicit enrichment and tax crimes. It also gives citizens the information they need to hold public officials accountable for their actions.
The Library shows that not all public officials are obligated to declare their assets and interests. High-level officials are generally included; 93 percent of covered countries require disclosure for cabinet members, 91 percent for Members of Parliament and 62 percent for high-ranking prosecutors. However, only 43 percent of countries provide the public with open access to public officials’ financial disclosures.
Financial disclosure systems make it harder for corrupt officials to hide their criminal activities or ill-gotten wealth,” said Jean Pesme, Manager of Financial Market Integrity at the World Bank. “Civil society and corruption fighters should back the G20’s call for asset disclosure systems, because they can be an effective tool for bringing thieving public servants to justice.”
A World Bank analysis published earlier this year, Using Asset Disclosure for Identifying Politically Exposed Persons, noted that as much as 93 percent of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have disclosure systems, while the percentage drops to 53 percent in Middle East and Northern African countries. While significant variations in implementation and access exist across the world’s financial disclosure systems, stakeholders agree that such systems are essential.
“Financial Disclosure is key in the fight against corruption,” says Navil Campos Paniagua, Manager, Complaints and Investigations Area, General Comptroller of the Republic of Costa Rica. “Until now, countries have been unaware of each other’s efforts when it comes to asset disclosure laws. The World Bank law library will certainly help practitioners and policymakers from different countries learn from one another and boost financial disclosure in their own countries.”
The World Bank’s work in Financial Market Integrity supports transparent and inclusive financial systems, and the fight against illicit financial flows.

Reference

When do Participatory Development Projects Work?

Building the water reservoir on the mountain 2006

Washington, November 14, 2012 – Involving local communities in decisions that affect their lives is central to making development more effective, and it has the potential to transform the role that poor people play in development by giving them voice and agency. But inducing civic engagement in development is not easy, says a new World Bank report, which covers community development and decentralization projects supported by the Bank and other donors.
Localizing Development: Does Participation Work?, a new Policy Research Report analyzing participatory development efforts, shows that such projects often fail to be sensitive to complex contexts – including social, political, historical and geographical realities – and fall short in terms of monitoring and evaluation systems, which hampers learning. Citing numerous examples, the authors demonstrate that participatory projects are not a substitute for weak states, but instead require strong central support to be effective.
The report shares evidence-based lessons on the challenges donor agencies face in inducing participation, including the need for a responsive state and a strong awareness of local context, and it recommends several steps to ensure that financiers support projects effectively, such as flexible, long-term engagement and participatory monitoring.
Genuine efforts at inducing civic engagement require a sustained long-term commitment and a clear understanding of the social and political forces at all levels of society,” said Ghazala Mansuri, a lead economist in the World Bank’s Poverty Reduction and Equity Group who co-authored the book with colleague, Vijayendra Rao, lead economist in the World Bank’s Development Research Group.
“Rarely is much thought given to the possibility that it is no easy task to effectively organize groups of people to act in a way that solves market and government failures,” said Rao, “In fact, such efforts face multiple challenges, such as lack of coordination, inequality, lack of transparency, corruption, free-riding, and low capacity. Participation works best as a sandwich with bottom-up participation supported by top-down supervision.
Given that the World Bank itself invested $85 billion over the past 10 years on local participatory projects, with other donors adding billions more, Mansuri and Rao had rich material to examine when participatory projects work and when they do not. They conclude that while community participation has had some success in improving outcomes in health and education, it has been less effective in reducing poverty, or in building the capacity for collective action. 
There are some common features among community-based programs that have done well in reaching the poor and improving services. One is strong engagement by the state, as in Brazil’s Programa Saude da Famılia, which provides free health services and is managed by municipal governments under the supervision of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Assessments of this program reveal substantial health effects, especially for newborn babies and young children. In addition, the program is cost effective, at some $30 per capita. Another key to success is significant effort in building capacity at the local level, as was the case with Ghana’s Community Health and Family Planning Project. It is also vital to pay a great deal of attention to context and to commit strongly to transparent monitoring systems, as in Indonesia’s Kecamatan Development Program.
The report points to three main lessons that emerge from distilling the evidence and thinking about the broader challenges in inducing participation:
1)     Induced participatory interventions work best when they are supported by a responsive state. The state does not necessarily have to be democratic—though being democratic helps a great deal. But in the sphere in which the intervention is being conducted—at the level of the community or the neighborhood—the state has to be responsive to community demands.
2)     Context, both local and national, is extremely important. Outcomes from interventions are highly variable across communities; local inequality, history, geography, the nature of social interactions, networks, and political systems all have a strong influence. The variability of these contexts is sometimes so large, and their effect so unpredictable, that projects that function well usually do so because they have strong built-in systems of learning and great sensitivity and adaptability to variations in context.
3)     Effective civic engagement does not develop predictably. Instead, it is likely to proceed with fits and starts where long periods of seeming quietude are followed by intense, often turbulent change. Donor-driven participatory projects often assume a far less contentious trajectory. Conditioned by bureaucratic imperatives, they often declare that clear, measurable, and usually optimistic outcomes will be delivered within a specified timeframe. There is a danger that such projects set themselves up for failure that derives not from what they achieve on the ground, but from unrealistic expectations.
The World Bank and other donor agencies need to take several steps to ensure that it supports projects with these characteristics:
  • Project structures need to change to allow for flexible, long-term engagement. Patience is a virtue.
  • Project designs and impact evaluations need to be informed by political and social analyses, in addition to economic analysis.
  • Monitoring and evaluation needs to be taken far more seriously. The use of new, more cost-effective information and communications technology (ICT)-based tools, could help enormously.
  • Clear systems of facilitator feedback as well as participatory monitoring and redress systems need to be created.
  • Most important, there needs to be room for honest feedback to facilitate learning, instead of a tendency to rush to judgment coupled with a fear of failure. The complexity of participatory development requires a high tolerance for failure and clear incentives for project managers to report evidence of it. Failure is sometimes the best way to learn about what works. Only in an environment in which failure is tolerated can innovation take place and evidence-based policy decisions be made.
This Policy Research Report (PRR) is the latest edition in a series managed by the World Bank’s research department. PRRs aim to contribute to the debate on appropriate public policies for developing economies. This year’s edition lays out a conceptual framework and empirical underpinning on participatory development.  The report is the result of an in-depth review of about 500 studies undertaken to date.