FILE - In this Nov. 20, 2012 file photo, China's Premier Wen Jiabao,
right, chats with U.S. President Barack Obama, left, as Cambodia's Prime
Minister Hun Sen stands between them during a family photo at the 7th
East Asia Summit Plenary Session in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. China's
finding the once friendly ground of Southeast Asia bumpy going, with
anger against Chinese claims to disputed islands, once reliable ally
Myanmar flirting with democracy and renewed American attention to the
region. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian, File)
BEIJING (AP) - China is finding the once friendly
ground of Southeast Asia bumpy going, with anger against Chinese claims
to disputed islands, once reliable ally Myanmar flirting with democracy
and renewed American attention to the region.
The changing
terrain for Beijing was on view this past week at a conclave of East
Asian nations in Cambodia. Wen Jiabao, China's lame duck premier who
usually exudes a mild, grandfatherly air, got into a sharp exchange over
the contested South China Sea islands. The leaders of the Philippines,
Singapore and Vietnam reacted furiously when host Cambodia suggested
that all sides agreed not to bring outside parties into the dispute - a
reference to the U.S.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama, buoyed by the first
visit ever by a U.S. president to Myanmar, projected an image of a
confident, friendly America, calling for a reduction in tensions and
seemingly taking no sides.
Beijing is struggling to find its feet
as its own power grows, but the U.S. refuses to cede influence in the
region, emboldening other countries not to fall in with the Chinese
line.
"The robust U.S. presence and relatively disciplined and
quiet diplomacy looked strong relative to China's heavy-handed
pressure," Ernest Bower, chair for Southeast Asian studies at the
Council for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.,
wrote in a Thursday commentary.
It's a reversal over the treatment
Beijing enjoyed much of the past decade as it wooed Southeast Asia with
soaring trade and investment and the lure of the huge Chinese market.
Looking to further those links, Wen held discussions on expanding a free
trade agreement to increase China's imports from Southeast Asia.
China's
economic "pull remains, but the smile has faded," said Aaron Friedberg,
professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton
University.
Getting Southeast Asian diplomacy right matters to
Beijing. It's an area where China historically exercised great sway. The
10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian nations, or ASEAN,
are home to a market of 600 million people and straddle vital shipping
lanes and seas rich in fish, oil, gas and other minerals.
Beijing's
influence began foundering in 2010 when its more assertive claims to
islands in the South China Sea touched off anxieties among the
Philippines and Vietnam, who along with Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also
claim the islands in whole or in part.
The fracas provided an
opening for the U.S., which as it wound down involvement in Iraq was
re-examining the challenge posed by China. The U.S. "pivot" brought
renewed diplomatic attention to the region and promises of more military
resources.
Still, the friction has only increased. Beijing has
become more aggressive in patrolling around the disputed islands,
leading to a faceoff last summer with the Philippines over Scarborough
Shoal. It is sparring farther afield over other islands with Japan,
heightening worries about an expansionist China. It also started issuing
new passports featuring a map that shows the entire South China Sea as
Chinese territory.
The tensions bubbled to the fore at an annual
summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Cambodia's capital of Phnom Penh
attended by Obama.
Philippine President Benigno Aquino raised the
Scarborough Shoal, prompting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to state that
the islets have been "Chinese territory since ancient times and no
sovereignty dispute exists." China's actions to assert its sovereignty
were wholly "appropriate and necessary," Wen told the closed door
meeting, according to Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying.
Wen's stern
statement was "destructive and dangerous," wrote CSIS's Bower. "This is
very uncertain ground, and uncertainty means the emergency of an
inherent instability in the region that undermines a solid foundation
for regional growth."
Chinese government-backed experts conceded a
failure in execution. "Somehow, the issue was not handled very well in
the meeting," said Zhao Gancheng, director of the Center for Southeast
Asia at the Shanghai Institute for Foreign Studies.
Economic
realities could still work in China's favor, experts say. Chinese
imports from the region grew 29 percent last year to $146 billion, and
with its economy expected to overtake America's as the world's largest
in coming years, China will only grow in importance as a source of
overseas investment.
The very fact that China has refused to back
off - despite provoking a backlash that could hurt its long-term
interests - speaks to Beijing's belief that its economic pull will
ultimately convince its ASEAN neighbors that their future lies with
China, not with the U.S., said Princeton's Friedberg.
"The big
question, I think, is whether the ASEAN states believe that the United
States actually has the resolve and the resources to follow through on
the commitments that have been made in recent years. If they begin to
doubt this they will have to do more to appease Beijing," Friedberg
said.
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