The U.K., meanwhile, has led a lone campaign for what British Prime Minister
David Cameron has called a "complete freeze" in spending.
"The U.K. has been the real outlier; their demands go way beyond
what's on the table," says Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Centre, a
think-tank in Brussels. "And sooner or later, the rest of the EU could
turn against them."
On the other side of the argument is a loose alliance of 15 or so
countries, led by Poland, Portugal and Hungary, that are furious that
funds earmarked for less-developed regions will be slashed.
"It's an extreme situation. At the moment, there seem to be more vetoes than actual EU countries," said an EU official.
European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, who will preside over
the two-day meeting, has vowed repeatedly to keep heads of state in
Brussels through the weekend to avert a collapse of the talks, arguing
that a deal is needed urgently to ensure the EU and its institutions
continue to function properly.
The Multiannual Financial Framework, as the 2014 to 2020 budget is
known, sets out the headline figures allocated to different EU programs
and activities, ranging from foreign policy to transport and
infrastructure.
Though it arouses passion like no other issue, overall it represents
about 1% of EU countries' combined national incomes, or roughly €940
billion ($1.2 trillion) for the entire seven years, according to Mr. Van
Rompuy's latest proposal. Without a deal, EU officials argue it becomes
impossible to set out medium-term policy priorities and spending.
In a reversal of usual summit protocol, Mr. Van Rompuy is hosting
back-to-back bilateral meetings throughout Thursday with all 27 EU
leaders, in an effort to bridge the huge gaps before the summit kicks
off in the evening. Last week, he issued a compromise budget designed to
win over the British and other net contributors by making fresh cuts to
spending, though the move instantly sparked an outcry from France,
Spain and Italy, which benefit from regional aid and farming subsidies.
This week, French Prime Minister François Hollande promised to
ring-fence the revenues from the Common Agricultural Policy, one of the
largest slices of the EU budget and one seen by many as most in need of
reform.
Concerns among officials about France, Italy and others blocking
talks have come to the fore this week, as initial fears that Mr. Cameron
would torpedo the summit have appeared to recede with British diplomats
signaling they are more open to a compromise. However, governments like
Austria and Italy balk at the U.K. being able to hold onto a
multibillion-euro rebate and have vowed to seek compensatory measures.
Euro-zone countries such as Germany are particularly keen to avert a
protracted round of talks spilling into next year, as they grapple with
other pressing issues, such as the Greek debt crisis, Mr. Zuleeg said.
"They want to put this to bed as soon as possible," he said.
Should this week's talks fail, EU leaders have until February to
reach a deal before Brussels officials run out of time to map out
spending and priorities for each policy area until 2020. If no deal is
reached next year, an emergency mechanism kicks that would use annual
spending figures from 2013 plus inflation—a far costlier arrangement
that all EU countries are keen to avoid.
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