November 18, 2012
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy
Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week
issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
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Interestingly, although Europe had been in the expansion phase over
2009:Q3-2011:Q4, real GDP still had not yet returned to its 2008:Q1 peak
before the current recession began.
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The CEPR announcement applies to Europe overall, and there are
important differences across countries. Output has been falling in
Italy and Spain but is still growing in Germany.
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This marks the first recession in CEPR's business cycle chronology
going back to 1970 in which Europe went into recession without the
United States also being in a downturn.
Let's hope
we'll still be saying that at the end of 2013.
Posted by James Hamilton at November 18, 2012 11:15 AM
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Strictly speaking, they are talking about the Eurozone, not Europe.
Posted by: Nick Rowe at November 18, 2012 01:44 PM
In terms of real US private GDP per capita, the US has never, in
fact, "recovered" from the slow-motion depression that started in
'00-'01, as in the case of the US in the 1830s, 1880s, 1930s, and Japan
after '97-'98 (the onset of Japan's debt-deflationary regime as began in
the US in '08).
US real GDP per capita since '00 has decelerated from 2.1% to within a margin or error of 0%.
The average trend rate of real US GDP growth since '07-'08 is effectively 0%, whereas real GDP per capita is negative. This has occurred despite the US gov't running cumulative deficits equivalent to more than 50% of private GDP and 100% of private wages and salaries.
Moreover, since '00, the US has cumulatively lost real GDP growth of nearly 20%, which is where Japan was in '00. Japan since '90 has lost cumulative real GDP growth of more than 40%, a trend trajectory the US is well on our way to replicating by the end of the decade.
To claim that the US is not following Japan and the EU is to ignore the underlying structural drag effects from debt/GDP, demographics, Peak Oil, and global population/ecological overshoot.
Keynesians, supply-siders, Monetarists, socialists, communists, corporate-statists, and fascists have no remedies for the maladies resulting from global ecological, demographic, and exergetic drag effects we face.
US real GDP per capita since '00 has decelerated from 2.1% to within a margin or error of 0%.
The average trend rate of real US GDP growth since '07-'08 is effectively 0%, whereas real GDP per capita is negative. This has occurred despite the US gov't running cumulative deficits equivalent to more than 50% of private GDP and 100% of private wages and salaries.
Moreover, since '00, the US has cumulatively lost real GDP growth of nearly 20%, which is where Japan was in '00. Japan since '90 has lost cumulative real GDP growth of more than 40%, a trend trajectory the US is well on our way to replicating by the end of the decade.
To claim that the US is not following Japan and the EU is to ignore the underlying structural drag effects from debt/GDP, demographics, Peak Oil, and global population/ecological overshoot.
Keynesians, supply-siders, Monetarists, socialists, communists, corporate-statists, and fascists have no remedies for the maladies resulting from global ecological, demographic, and exergetic drag effects we face.
Posted by: Bruce Carman at November 18, 2012 03:36 PM
Jim's speaking here in Princeton today at the University, 4:30 pm.
Posted by: Steven Kopits at November 19, 2012 09:12 AM
Why is per capita GDP is so low, given that we have ZIPR for many
years, trillions of freshly minted digital dollars, health care
availability and inflation are to be taken care of thanks to the ACA,
TBTF banks are reined in thanks to Dodd-Frank, and so on and so forth,
among many other recent improvements?
And why is Europe not doing very well? They don't even have to spend that much money on military and defence, unlike USA.
Oh well, at least US stock market is going up and up and up.
Also, people with equity and good jobs are able to refinance their houses at an almost negative real interest rate, courtesy of other tax-payers and the Federal Reserve. Some rich enterprising folks are even able to leverage such low interest rate to buy up a bunch of houses and rent it at a nice profit. With any luck another housing boom may be around the corner. As before, it shall usher a period of sustainable growth and deliver lower unemployment.
We shall hope, believe and march forward....
And why is Europe not doing very well? They don't even have to spend that much money on military and defence, unlike USA.
Oh well, at least US stock market is going up and up and up.
Also, people with equity and good jobs are able to refinance their houses at an almost negative real interest rate, courtesy of other tax-payers and the Federal Reserve. Some rich enterprising folks are even able to leverage such low interest rate to buy up a bunch of houses and rent it at a nice profit. With any luck another housing boom may be around the corner. As before, it shall usher a period of sustainable growth and deliver lower unemployment.
We shall hope, believe and march forward....
Posted by: B Turnbull at November 19, 2012 10:31 AM
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